• Scott  Lawson

    Scott Lawson

    Branch Manager
    NMLS# 312312

  • What's Your Property Worth?

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    Nobody qualifies to purchase a home in Sonoma County, right?

    With interest rates higher than they were a few years ago and home prices still grinding higher despite the popular belief that home prices would collapse in 2022 and then again in 2023 and the drumbeat continues into 2024 as the Youtube influencers continue to drive into their subscribers heads that home prices are on the verge of collapse—just wait. It has to happen…

    Well, we’re still waiting. It will take a significant amount of supply to hit the market before any meaningful reduction in prices would occur due to over supply and panic selling. Yeah, that’s what it would take. The supply would need to exceed 4 to 5 times the current monthly homes for sale to start to rock the boat. Currently, would-be sellers do not exist and do not appear to be coming to market any time soon. If interest rates were to magically come down a few percentage points, sure, some sellers will then be motivated to list their properties for sale, but that supply still will not be nearly enough to bring down the median home prices in this County.

    What it comes down to is the buyer’s willingness to step up and make the purchase before prices go even higher—potentially much higher in the coming months to years.

    Here’s an example of two determined brothers that simply were going to own a house and not be stopped with whom I recently worked (they closed on January 5th, 2024).

    I had been working with Roberto and Osmar for over 10 months. They were both convinced by their friends that home prices were going to collapse in Sonoma and the surrounding counties when I first sat down with them. Their friends, of course, are non-homeowners. I gave them my opinion then (the same I give now). They finally threw in the towel in November and started making offers on properties listed for sale–and connected on a 4-bedroom house in Santa Rosa for $749,000.

    This was an FHA loan with a 3.5% down payment. Roberto works for a kitchen and bath supply shop in Novato and his brother Osmar is a full-time cook at a golf course in Marin County and also has a part time job in a restaurant in Sausalito. Not doctors, high-power lawyers, or CEOs of an AI startup in San Francisco. Just regular folks that wanted to take a very important step to get ahead. They are now proud homeowners because they discarded the lies they were being told about real estate in the media and in their personal circles and made it work.

    The message here—home prices are holding up and probably going to grind higher. Interest rates are stuck in a range between the high 5’s and the low 7’s and may well be in this range for years to come for a variety of reasons—none of which have to do with the Federal Reserve. If you are waiting for any of this to change any time soon, you have already lost.

    This message was written by a human. No AI assist…

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    Scott Lawson

    11 Petaluma Blvd N., Suite 206
    Petaluma, California 94952
    (707) 763-7900
    NMLS# 312312

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